War Intensity Heatmap
Comprehensive visualization of conflict intensity across Ukraine. Analyze battle density, combat hotspots, and regional fighting patterns from the start of the full-scale invasion to the present day.
Understanding Conflict Heatmaps
Our heatmap visualization uses multiple data sources to show where fighting is most intense. This section explains how to interpret the intensity data.
Intensity Classification
Continuous heavy combat, multiple simultaneous battles
Major offensive operations, frequent engagements
Active front line, regular combat operations
Sporadic fighting, shelling, and strikes
Primarily long-range strikes, minimal ground combat
Data Sources & Methodology
- •ACLED Database: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project provides verified event-level conflict data
- •OSINT Sources: Open-source intelligence including social media, satellite imagery, and local reports
- •Official Reports: Ukrainian General Staff daily briefings and regional military administration updates
- •Intensity Formula: Events per 1,000 km² normalized by time period for regional comparison
- •Update Frequency: Data refreshed daily with 24-48 hour lag for verification
Regional Intensity Analysis
Detailed breakdown of conflict intensity by Ukrainian oblast, including total events, intensity scores, and period of peak fighting.
Donetsk Oblast
#1Epicenter of the conflict with continuous heavy fighting. Site of the longest battles including Bakhmut (225+ days) and Avdiivka.
Luhansk Oblast
#2Scene of intense battles in spring-summer 2022. Currently mostly under Russian occupation with fighting along borders.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
#3Key area of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. Robotyne salient created during summer offensive.
Kherson Oblast
#4Site of successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in fall 2022. Ongoing cross-Dnipro operations and shelling.
Kharkiv Oblast
#5Major urban area under constant attack. Successful counteroffensive in September 2022. New Russian offensive in May 2024.
Mykolaiv Oblast
#6Front line region in early war. Successful defense of Mykolaiv city. Now primarily faces long-range strikes.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
#7Major industrial region. Nikopol regularly shelled from Zaporizhzhia NPP area. Drone and missile strikes on Dnipro city.
Sumy Oblast
#8Occupied briefly in early invasion. Now faces cross-border shelling and sabotage groups. Site of Ukrainian cross-border operations in Kursk.
Chernihiv Oblast
#9Heavy fighting during initial invasion. Successfully defended. Now faces occasional long-range strikes.
Kyiv Oblast
#10Scene of major battles in early war. Liberated in April 2022. Site of documented war crimes in Bucha.
Poltava Oblast
#11Rear area targeted by long-range missiles. Kremenchuk mall attack (June 2022). Military training facilities targeted.
Odesa Oblast
#12Major port city. Regular missile and drone attacks targeting port infrastructure and grain facilities.
Active Combat Hotspots
Current areas of most intense fighting with real-time status assessment. These zones represent the primary axes of combat operations as of the latest data.
Pokrovsk Directioncritical
Currently the most active front. Russian forces advancing toward strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting around Selydove and Kurakhove.
Control of Pokrovsk would cut key Ukrainian supply lines and threaten Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Kupiansk-Lyman Axishigh
Russian attempts to recapture Kupiansk and advance toward Lyman. Fierce battles along Oskil River. Critical logistics route contested.
Railway junction at Kupiansk crucial for logistics. Loss would threaten northern Donbas defense.
Chasiv Yarhigh
Strategic hilltop town west of Bakhmut. Russian forces attempting to capture since early 2024. Controls heights overlooking approaches to Kramatorsk-Sloviansk.
Elevated position provides artillery advantage. Gateway to major Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk.
Vovchansk Sectormoderate
Site of May 2024 Russian offensive. Initial Russian gains contained. Urban fighting in Vovchansk ongoing. Buffer zone operations.
Aimed to create buffer zone and stretch Ukrainian resources. Threatens Kharkiv from north.
Kursk Salient (Russia)high
Ukrainian-held territory inside Russia since August 2024 incursion. Active combat as Russia attempts to recapture. North Korean troops reportedly engaged.
First foreign occupation of Russian territory since WWII. Political and military significance. Bargaining chip for negotiations.
Zaporizhzhia Linemoderate
Relatively static front since end of 2023 counteroffensive. Robotyne salient maintained. Probing attacks and artillery duels.
Potential axis to Crimea. Ukrainian foothold in Robotyne area maintained for future operations.
Dnipro River Linemoderate
Ukrainian bridgehead operations on east bank near Krynky. Naval drone operations in Black Sea. Artillery exchanges across river.
Krynky bridgehead ties down Russian forces. Potential future crossing point. Controls approaches to Crimea.
Intensity Timeline
Monthly conflict intensity trends from the start of the invasion to present. Track how fighting has evolved across different phases of the war.
2022
Invasion begins - multi-axis attack
Peak territorial extent - battles across Ukraine
Northern withdrawal - Bucha discoveries
Donbas focus - Azovstal falls
Severodonetsk battle peak
Lysychansk falls - Russian advance
Kherson counteroffensive begins
Kharkiv counteroffensive - major liberation
Kerch bridge attack - mobilization impact
Kherson liberated - winter setting in
Winter fighting - positional warfare
2023
Soledar falls - Bakhmut intensifies
Bakhmut battle peak - Wagner offensive
Bakhmut urban fighting intensifies
Preparation for counteroffensive
Bakhmut falls - counteroffensive imminent
Counteroffensive begins - Zaporizhzhia axis
Robotyne advance - heavy mine warfare
Slow progress through defenses
Counteroffensive continues - limited gains
Avdiivka assault begins
Russian offensive operations increase
Winter positions - Avdiivka pressure
2024
Avdiivka battle intensifies
Avdiivka falls - two year anniversary
Russian advance continues
Chasiv Yar pressure increases
Kharkiv offensive begins - Vovchansk
Kharkiv battles - Kursk preparation
Continued fighting across front
Kursk incursion - Ukraine enters Russia
Kursk consolidation - Donetsk pressure
North Korean troops arrive
Kursk counterattack - Pokrovsk advance
Winter offensive operations
2025
Three year anniversary approaches
Three year mark — diplomatic contacts intensify; US-Russia talks begin
Spring offensive preparations; Pokrovsk front active
US shuttle diplomacy; Riyadh talks stall
Eastern front attrition continues; Chasiv Yar contested
Summer lull in diplomacy; fighting sustained
Donetsk advances; Toretsk pressure increases
Summer fighting uptick; drone campaign intensifies
UN General Assembly — ceasefire resolution fails
Autumn weather slows ground operations
Three year milestone; US proposes provisional ceasefire framework
Winter energy strikes; Vienna technical talks begin
2026
Four year mark; Vienna talks continue; diplomatic pressure
Four year anniversary — no ceasefire reached
Partial month data (through Mar 11)
Weapon Systems & Intensity
How the introduction of key weapon systems has affected conflict intensity and tactical dynamics.
HIMARS/GMLRS
Since 2022-06Reduced Russian logistics hubs, enabling counteroffensives
Storm Shadow/SCALP
Since 2023-05Enabled deep strikes on Crimea and occupied territories
ATACMS
Since 2023-10Extended operational reach for Ukrainian strikes
Shahed-136 (Russian use)
Since 2022-09Enabled mass strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure
FPV Drones
Since 2023-01Transformed tactical combat, high attrition of armor
Lancet (Russian)
Since 2022-06Loitering munition threat to Ukrainian artillery
Naval Drones
Since 2022-10Transformed Black Sea balance, forced Russian fleet retreat
F-16 Fighting Falcon
Since 2024-08Enhanced air defense, limited ground attack role initially
Civilian Impact Correlation
Analysis of the relationship between conflict intensity and civilian casualties. Higher intensity zones correlate strongly with civilian harm.
Casualties by Region
How to Interpret This Data
Important context for understanding conflict intensity heatmaps and their limitations.
Location Accuracy
Event locations are geocoded from reports and may have varying precision. Urban areas tend to have more precise location data than rural combat zones. Some events may be placed at administrative centers when exact location is unknown.
Temporal Lag
Data typically has a 24-72 hour lag from event occurrence to inclusion in our dataset. Major events may be added sooner, while minor skirmishes in remote areas may take longer to verify and include.
Reporting Bias
Areas under Ukrainian control tend to have more detailed reporting due to press access and social media presence. Russian-occupied areas may be underreported. Air defense engagements and drone activity may be inconsistently documented.
Event Types
Not all events are equal - a single artillery barrage and a major ground assault may be counted as one event each. Intensity scores normalize by area but don't weight by event severity.
Dynamic Situation
Hotspots can shift rapidly. An area with moderate intensity may escalate within days due to offensive operations. Historical data is more reliable than current assessments for this reason.
Data Collaboration
Our data combines ACLED project data, open-source intelligence, and official reports. We cross-reference sources where possible. If you have corrections or additional verified data, please contact us.
Related Analysis
Access the Data
Download heatmap data for your own analysis or access our API for programmatic integration.
Last updated: 2026-02-04 • Data sources: ACLED, OSINT, Official Reports • For research and educational purposes